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March Madness Begins


March Madness begins this week. It's an annual college basketball tournament advertised as the final four. Get ready, because you're about to watch basketball on every TV screen for the next month. Our research team is getting into the spirit with our edition of March Madness called the "final four factors" for the stock market in 2021: Vaccines, Policy, Profits, and Rates. The champion crowned at the end of this tournament will be Vaccines, and it's not even going to be close.


First Place Champions

Vaccination is a critical event that will ripple across the economics of behavior and change. People will be able to consume, and it's considered essential for growth. The United States has administered over 100 million doses. It's hard not to just admire these fantastic companies that created a miracle vaccine in such a short amount of time. A vital and needed reopening will restore strength to our economy. The economy will also benefit from revenge spenders. Stimulated consumers can surprise conservative economist numbers for growth this year.



Second Place

Between stimulus and response, there is a decision. The US Leaders have made the choice of adding a 1.9 trillion stimulus bill on March 11, 2021. The stimulus package is meant to potentially limit the economic downside or surprise to the upside. The event is temporary, short-term, and timely. It's likely the market has priced in the stimulus-response.


Third Place

Profits. Usually, it's always number one and no less than number 2. However, we live in extraordinary times, and valuations are changing quickly due to COVID. Once the economy fully reopens, and COVID is just a part of our lessons to learn from the past. If the economy reopens fully (and I think it will), consumers will do what they do best--consume.


Fourth Place

Rates. I've noticed commentators talking about rates more and more. There's indeed concern if rates move too fast, but not if they move up slowly with the Federal Government committed to keeping interest rates low. Our market outlook has a range up to 1.75% ending at the end of this year.


Yours Truly,

Anthony


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